In a downtrend, three named degrees of the same failed rally — each graded by exactly how far the close crawls back into the prior red candle's body, and all three falling short of the halfway line that would flip the whole story into a piercing line.
The Sakata ledgers name three separate degrees of a failed bounce — kubitsuki «at the neck», irikubi «inside the neck», sashikomi «a thrust» — grading exactly how weak the recovery was rather than lumping every failed rally together.
Western bar charts can show a rally attempt — but rarely grade its weakness this precisely. Sakata's three-tier system for «almost, but not enough» has no simple bar-chart equivalent.
Steve Nison's 1991 catalog carries all three into English, graded from weakest (on neck) to strongest (thrusting) — all three still falling short of the piercing line's halfway threshold.
Modern traders rarely trade these three by name — mostly useful for confirming a downtrend's bounces are still failing, not for generating fresh trades.
Ranked by how far the second candle's close crawls back into the prior red candle's body: on neck closes at the prior low, in neck barely clears the prior close, thrusting reaches further in — but all three still short of halfway.
None of these three ever reach the halfway point into the prior candle's body. The moment a bounce clears that line, it becomes a piercing line instead — and the whole reading flips from bearish continuation to a possible bullish reversal.
Unlike almost every other two-candle pattern in this course, these three are read as the downtrend resuming, not reversing — the weak bounce is evidence sellers are still in control, not that buyers are taking over.
During the 2022 bear market, a bounce attempt closes meaningfully higher than the prior session but still well under halfway back into the prior red candle's body — the downtrend resumes within days.
Amid the 2008 crash, a rally attempt closes at almost exactly the prior session's low — sellers regain control almost immediately after.
Early in the dot-com unwind, a bounce closes barely above the prior close — a weak attempt that the subsequent decline quickly overwhelmed.
In a downtrend, a session opens lower and rallies to close at almost exactly the same price as the prior session's low. What is this?
A similar bounce closes a little higher — clearly above the prior close, deep into the prior candle's body, but the close still lands at 40% of the way back. What is this?
The next day, in an otherwise identical setup, the close lands at 55% back into the prior candle's body. What changes?
Two sessions, watched as they happen. The bounce builds tick by tick on the left — and the mark it leaves in the ledger on the right. The weakest grade, a stronger one — and the moment the halfway line is finally crossed.
A downtrend, and a bounce candle at the end of it. Measure exactly how far the close got — then call it: stay short, stand aside, or flip long. Most bounces never clear the line.
The classic error is getting excited about any green candle inside a downtrend. The discipline is to measure the penetration precisely every time, and to default to continuation unless the close clearly passes halfway.
On neck, in neck, and thrusting are the downtrend's own honesty check — three named degrees of a bounce that tried and failed, each graded by exactly how far it got before running out of road. The instant a bounce clears the halfway line, the whole story changes — but until it does, these three confirm the same quiet fact: the sellers are still in charge.
«After the rain, the ground hardens.»