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FOUNDATION_23 — THREE GRADES OF A FAILED BOUNCE · SHORT OF THE HALFWAY LINE
FOUNDATIONS · 23 / 30 · SELF-PACED · ~13 MIN READ

ON NECK, IN NECK
& THRUSTING

THE BOUNCE THAT DIDN'T MAKE IT HALFWAY

In a downtrend, three named degrees of the same failed rally — each graded by exactly how far the close crawls back into the prior red candle's body, and all three falling short of the halfway line that would flip the whole story into a piercing line.

«A great undertaking can fail for want of one final basket of earth.»
— CLASSICAL PROVERB · KYUUJIN NO KOU WO IKKI NI KAKU
SCROLL
01 — HISTORY

THREE NAMES FOR
ONE FAILURE

KUBITSUKI, IRIKUBI, SASHIKOMI

The Sakata ledgers name three separate degrees of a failed bounce — kubitsuki «at the neck», irikubi «inside the neck», sashikomi «a thrust»grading exactly how weak the recovery was rather than lumping every failed rally together.

SAKATA ERA
→ THREE DEGREES OF THE SAME FAILURE
BAR-CHART ERA
→ NO EQUIVALENT GRADING SYSTEM
A RALLY ATTEMPT, UNGRADED

Western bar charts can show a rally attempt — but rarely grade its weakness this precisely. Sakata's three-tier system for «almost, but not enough» has no simple bar-chart equivalent.

NISON'S EXACT THRESHOLD

Steve Nison's 1991 catalog carries all three into English, graded from weakest (on neck) to strongest (thrusting) — all three still falling short of the piercing line's halfway threshold.

1991
→ GRADED, BUT NEVER ENOUGH
TODAY
→ A CONFIRMATION TOOL, RARELY A TRIGGER
RARELY TRADED, OFTEN USEFUL

Modern traders rarely trade these three by name — mostly useful for confirming a downtrend's bounces are still failing, not for generating fresh trades.

02 — THREE PILLARS

GRADED BY
HOW FAR IT GOT

PILLAR 01
THE SPECTRUM
THREE DEGREES OF THE SAME FAILED BOUNCE

Ranked by how far the second candle's close crawls back into the prior red candle's body: on neck closes at the prior low, in neck barely clears the prior close, thrusting reaches further inbut all three still short of halfway.

BEGINNER TRAP — treating all three as identical. The depth of penetration is exactly the variable that separates them, and it matters for how much conviction the failed bounce carries.
↗ SEE IT LIVE ON CLEAREX
50% LINE ON NECK IN NECK THRUSTING THREE DEPTHS, ONE CEILING
PILLAR 02
THE THRESHOLD
HALFWAY IS THE EXACT DIVIDING LINE

None of these three ever reach the halfway point into the prior candle's body. The moment a bounce clears that line, it becomes a piercing line insteadand the whole reading flips from bearish continuation to a possible bullish reversal.

BEGINNER TRAP — eyeballing «it got pretty close to halfway» as good enough. Thrusting lines fail for exactly this reason; the 50% line is exact, not approximate.
↗ SEE IT LIVE ON CLEAREX
HALFWAY — THE EXACT LINE SHORT OF THE LINE — STILL CONTINUATION PAST IT — NOW A PIERCING LINE ONE LINE, TWO STORIES
PILLAR 03
CONTINUATION, NOT REVERSAL
SELLERS STILL HAVE THE ROOM

PLAIN: unlike most patterns in this course, these three mean the downtrend is likely to continue, not reverse. A green candle that fails to clear halfway is evidence sellers are still winning, not that buyers are taking over.

Unlike almost every other two-candle pattern in this course, these three are read as the downtrend resuming, not reversingthe weak bounce is evidence sellers are still in control, not that buyers are taking over.

PRO: use the grade itself as a confidence dial for staying short — an on neck bounce is the strongest continuation confirmation of the three; a thrusting line, while still a continuation signal, deserves slightly tighter risk since it came closer to flipping.

BEGINNER TRAP — buying a thrusting line because it «looks like» a recovery attempt. The whole point of the pattern is that the recovery failed.
↗ SEE IT LIVE ON CLEAREX
THE FAILED BOUNCE — THE TREND RESUMES A CONTINUATION SIGNAL, NOT A REVERSAL
03 — REFERENCE · THE FAMILY

SIX FACETS OF
THE SAME FAILURE

ON NECK LINE (KUBITSUKI)
Closes at the prior candle's low — the weakest bounce possible.
IN NECK LINE (IRIKUBI)
Closes barely above the prior close — still very weak.
THRUSTING LINE (SASHIKOMI)
Closes further in, but under 50% — moderately weak.
COUSIN: PIERCING LINE
Closes past 50% — reverses the whole reading entirely (see FOUNDATION_19).
0% → 50%
THE GRADING RULE
Measure penetration as a percentage: zero, a hair, then up to — never through — the halfway mark.
WHY IT MATTERS
Three named degrees of «the bounce failed» — useful for confirming a downtrend still has control, even without a new trade signal.
04 — THE RECORD · WITH DATES

BOUNCES THAT
NEVER GOT THERE

2022.05
BTC · A THRUST THAT FELL SHORT
REAL PROGRESS, STILL NOT ENOUGH

During the 2022 bear market, a bounce attempt closes meaningfully higher than the prior session but still well under halfway back into the prior red candle's body — the downtrend resumes within days.

UNDER HALFWAY — STILL A CONTINUATION BTCUSD · 2022.05
2008.10
S&P 500 · A NECK-LINE BOUNCE IN THE CRASH
A BOUNCE THAT NEVER LEFT THE PRIOR LOW

Amid the 2008 crash, a rally attempt closes at almost exactly the prior session's low — sellers regain control almost immediately after.

CLOSED AT THE PRIOR LOW SPX · 2008.10
2000.03
NASDAQ · AN IN-NECK BOUNCE AT THE DOT-COM BREAK
BARELY ABOVE THE PRIOR CLOSE

Early in the dot-com unwind, a bounce closes barely above the prior close — a weak attempt that the subsequent decline quickly overwhelmed.

A HAIR ABOVE THE PRIOR CLOSE NASDAQ · 2000.03
05 — THE PRACTICE LAB · THREE QUESTIONS

THE THREE-STEP
SYSTEM

THE TREND CHECK
Is this a real, established downtrend? These three patterns only mean something as continuation signals within one.
THE PENETRATION MEASURE
Where exactly does the close land — at the prior low, barely above the prior close, or meaningfully in but under 50%?
THE HALFWAY TEST
Does the close stay under the halfway line? Clear it, and this isn't one of these three anymore — it's a piercing line.
→ THE GRADE IS THE WHOLE LESSON
06 — READING DRILLS

READ THE
FAILED BOUNCE

SCORE: 0 / 3
DRILL 01

In a downtrend, a session opens lower and rallies to close at almost exactly the same price as the prior session's low. What is this?

? A DOWNTREND → ?
DRILL 02

A similar bounce closes a little higher — clearly above the prior close, deep into the prior candle's body, but the close still lands at 40% of the way back. What is this?

50% LINE ? MORE PROGRESS, SAME ULTIMATE READING
DRILL 03

The next day, in an otherwise identical setup, the close lands at 55% back into the prior candle's body. What changes?

? ONE TICK CHANGES THE WHOLE STORY
07 — LIVE READ · TWO CANDLES, TICK BY TICK

INSIDE THE
FAILED BOUNCE

Two sessions, watched as they happen. The bounce builds tick by tick on the left — and the mark it leaves in the ledger on the right. The weakest grade, a stronger one — and the moment the halfway line is finally crossed.

FORMATION:
01 — THE DECLINE
A real leg down, closing with a long red candle.
02 — THE BOUNCE
The next session opens lower and rallies to close right at the prior candle's low.
03 — THE RESUMPTION
The decline resumes over the sessions that follow.
04 — THE RECORD
The weakest possible bounce — sellers never lost control: the on neck line.
CLOSED AT THE PRIOR LOW THE RECORD ZERO PENETRATION — THE WEAKEST GRADE THE ON NECK LINE · KUBITSUKI SCHEMATIC — TWO CANDLES, TICK BY TICK · AUTO-LOOP
08 — ACTIVE DRILL · GRADE THE BOUNCE

THE PENETRATION LINE

A downtrend, and a bounce candle at the end of it. Measure exactly how far the close got — then call it: stay short, stand aside, or flip long. Most bounces never clear the line.

CALLED 0 · WRONG 0
Measure the penetration. Continuation, or has the line been crossed?
Below 50%, stay with the trend. Above it, the story flips.
09 — DISCIPLINE · MEASURE, DON'T EYEBALL

DEFAULT TO
CONTINUATION

PLAIN: in a downtrend, don't buy a bounce just because it happened. Measure exactly how far the close got, and only treat it as a real reversal if it clears the halfway line.

The classic error is getting excited about any green candle inside a downtrend. The discipline is to measure the penetration precisely every time, and to default to continuation unless the close clearly passes halfway.

PRO: journal the exact penetration percentage of every bounce candle in a downtrend. Over time this builds real intuition for where the threshold sits, rather than eyeballing «looks close enough» in the moment.

A REAL DOWNTREND BEHIND IT?
PENETRATION MEASURED, NOT EYEBALLED?
CLEARLY UNDER 50% — STILL CONTINUATION?
→ THE TREND IS INNOCENT UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE
MEASURED, NOT ASSUMED YOUR JOB IS TO CHECK THE EXACT LINE
10 — LEGACY

THE BOUNCE THAT
FELL SHORT

On neck, in neck, and thrusting are the downtrend's own honesty check — three named degrees of a bounce that tried and failed, each graded by exactly how far it got before running out of road. The instant a bounce clears the halfway line, the whole story changes — but until it does, these three confirm the same quiet fact: the sellers are still in charge.

«After the rain, the ground hardens.»
— JAPANESE PROVERB · AME FUTTE JI KATAMARU
ON NECK LINE · IN NECK LINE · THRUSTING LINE · SHORT OF THE HALFWAY LINE · KYUUJIN NO KOU WO IKKI NI KAKU · AME FUTTE JI KATAMARU · BTCUSD · SPX · FOUNDATION_23 / 23 · ON NECK LINE · IN NECK LINE · THRUSTING LINE · SHORT OF THE HALFWAY LINE · KYUUJIN NO KOU WO IKKI NI KAKU · AME FUTTE JI KATAMARU · BTCUSD · SPX · FOUNDATION_23 / 23 ·